% latex table generated in R 4.3.1 by xtable 1.8-4 package
\begin{table}[ht]
\centering
\caption{Ethnic Minority Representation Effects on Vote Shares, Incumbent's Probability of Winning and Effective Number of Parties} 
\label{table:effect_vote_choice}
\begin{tabular}{cccccccccc}
  \hline
RD estimate & se & p-value & 95\% CI & mean control & MSE opt bw & eff. N & N & outcome & sample const \\ 
  \hline
0.034 & 0.026 & 0.256 & [-0.026,0.097] & 0.673 & 21.502 & 106 & 465 & turnout & all \\ 
  0.085 & 0.037 & 0.036 & [0.006,0.18] & 0.653 & 23.089 & 62 & 258 & turnout & majority-white \\ 
  0.003 & 0.034 & 0.993 & [-0.08,0.081] & 0.695 & 20.712 & 49 & 207 & turnout & plurality-minority \\ 
  9.476 & 4.517 & 0.050 & [0.016,21.376] & 39.529 & 24.289 & 126 & 465 & vs incumbent & all \\ 
  6.221 & 6.530 & 0.380 & [-8.707,22.822] & 42.216 & 20.537 & 53 & 258 & vs incumbent & majority-white \\ 
  12.843 & 8.418 & 0.172 & [-6.213,34.869] & 35.314 & 22.017 & 52 & 207 & vs incumbent & plurality-minority \\ 
  -0.931 & 4.690 & 0.897 & [-10.153,11.588] & 40.921 & 17.094 & 74 & 410 & vs opponent & all \\ 
  10.640 & 7.747 & 0.201 & [-6.515,30.925] & 31.017 & 13.231 & 23 & 225 & vs opponent & majority-white \\ 
  -7.249 & 5.653 & 0.301 & [-20.88,6.459] & 47.581 & 21.063 & 49 & 185 & vs opponent & plurality-minority \\ 
  0.131 & 0.201 & 0.563 & [-0.343,0.63] & 0.594 & 28.078 & 148 & 465 & prob. victory & all \\ 
  -0.054 & 0.404 & 0.887 & [-1.034,0.894] & 0.739 & 22.805 & 61 & 258 & prob. victory & majority-white \\ 
  0.308 & 0.330 & 0.378 & [-0.444,1.17] & 0.363 & 21.774 & 51 & 207 & prob. victory & plurality-minority \\ 
  -0.226 & 0.144 & 0.155 & [-0.587,0.093] & 2.667 & 24.798 & 129 & 465 & eff. num. parties & all \\ 
  -0.453 & 0.315 & 0.210 & [-1.242,0.273] & 2.804 & 16.045 & 36 & 258 & eff. num. parties & majority-white \\ 
  -0.107 & 0.156 & 0.569 & [-0.475,0.261] & 2.571 & 31.617 & 84 & 207 & eff. num. parties & plurality-minority \\ 
   \hline
{\footnotesize Notes: The dependent variable \emph{turnout} is the constituency-level turnout rate at \emph{t+1}, \emph{vs incumbent} the vote share for the incumbent's party, \emph{vs opponent} the vote share for the incumbent's strongest opponent (at \emph{t}), \emph{prob. victory} the incumbent's probability of winning, and \emph{eff. num. parties} the effective number of parties. \emph{RD estimate} is computed with local-linear regression within a symmetric MSE-optimal bandwidth. \emph{se} is the conventional standard error, \emph{p-value} and \emph{95\% CI} are robust bias-corrected. \emph{mean control} indicates the average outcome at \emph{t+1} in constituencies where ethnic minorities barely lost at \emph{t}. \emph{MSE opt bw} is the MSE-optimal bandwidth of minority vote-share winning margin around the victory threshold, \emph{eff. N} is the sample size within the MSE-optimal bandwidth, \emph{N} is the sample size. In \emph{sample const}, \emph{all} includes all constituencies, \emph{majority-white} constituencies with an ethnic minority population share smaller than 20\%, and \emph{plurality-minority} constituencies with an ethnic minority population share greater than 20\%. Election results data are from the Electoral Commission. The ethnic background of candidates is constructed by the authors.}
 \hline
\end{tabular}
\end{table}
